Rasko's College Football Preview - University of Utah

I do not have the time or means to give a position by position or game by game breakdown of Utah football, version 2012. So, the following are a scramble of thoughts penned in stream of consciousness fashion.



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Utah’s final record will look a lot like last year. Bill Riley, voice of the Utes, put the over/under for wins at 8.5. A perfect number in my opinion. After all, they finished with 8 wins last year (including the Sun Bowl victory). Take away the unexpected loss at home to Colorado the day after Thanksgiving, and I suspect Utah would have finished with 9 victories (following a loss in the Pac-12 championship game and a bowl victory).

The question I asked myself as fall camp reared its head earlier this month was “what has changed?” On the surface I see a team with a solid foundation, with uncertainty at Quarterback, high expectations on defense, and new coordinators. In 2011, the cursory review of the team would have been very similar save for one important distinction: uncertainty at the running-back position. John White IV had an amazing year last year on so many levels. He broke school records for rushing yards, he approached 40 carries in a game more than once, and most impressively, he was durable. Save for his injury against Colorado, John White IV was available for duty. What does White IV have planned for an encore?

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When a player comes out of nowhere and performs Festivus-like feats of strength, I am hard pressed to put my money on a repeat performance. John White IV is a known quantity now. Defenses will be ready for him. Also, something that cannot be overstated is the loss to Tony Bergstrom and John Cullen along the offensive line. Great players can rise above these hurdles, something of which I feel John White is capable. That being said, the use and abuse of John White IV last year was the result of desperation. Luckily for Utah, the desperation bred greatness. With what is reportedly more RB depth, Utah is not planning on using John White IV as much. If John White IV can stay healthy, he will produce, just not as much as in 2011.

Jordan Wynn continues to be the most interesting man of fall camp. In 2009, it was his unbelievable weight gain. In 2010, it was talk of his returning from a fine freshman year finish and the opportunity to establish himself amongst the Utah QB greats. In 2011, there were the concerns surrounding his surgically-repaired shoulder and in response the coaching staff limited his throws in camp. In 2012, <see 2011>. That a bionic Jordan Wynn is still the best option for Utah at QB reflects somewhat negatively on the coaching staff recruitment of the position. Jon Hays, a player who had the Division II football program for which he was planning to play disband unexpectedly, was the starter for most of Utah’s inaugural season in the Pac12.  Clearly, Utah was unprepared at QB going into the Pac12. The feeling is that things are different this year. However, save for Travis Wilson (who will redshirt), the faces are the same. Jordan Wynn will start under center against Northern Colorado, but I suspect that Jon Hays will also get the opportunity to continue his Pac12 experience.

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With Brian Johnson, Utah has the youngest offensive coordinator in college football. I anticipate growing pains as Johnson adjusts to a more important role in the teams' performance. How will Brain Johnson's coming out party go? For a surprisingly relevant comparison, look south to Brandon Doman's experience at BYU as a first year offensive coordinator. A part of me wonders how much autonomy Johnson will be given. Clearly, Kyle Whittingham and the University think very highly of Brian Johnson and the skills that he brings to the table, otherwise they would not have invested so much money into his contract or given him such a high profile job. However, Whittingham runs a tight ship and I suspect that his voice will be heard, and his edicts followed, in offensive matters. While with health the passing game will improve thereby enhancing overall production, expect similar points-per-game as 2011.

Here is my quick, cold, uncalculated game-by-game predictions for the University of Utah football team:

2012-2013 SCHEDULE

	Opponent / Event		Time / Result
	vs. Northern Colorado		Win
	at Utah State		Win
	vs. Brigham Young		Win
	at Arizona State		Win
	vs. USC		Loss
	at UCLA		Win
	at Oregon State		Loss
	vs. California		Win
	vs. Washington State		Loss
	at Washington		Loss
	vs. Arizona		Win
	at Colorado		Win

8-4 is a solid sophomore season in the Pac12 for Utah and guarantees a solid bowl matchup. The one game I would like to comment on is the Washington State game, at home. Utah escaped Pullman with a win in OT in the snow last year. Wazzu was able to move the ball at will against the Utah defense, especially late in the contest. Though the scheme has changed with Mike Leach and his "surrender the booty" style, I can see the Wazzu game being an unexpected loss at home for Utah. 

Other predictions:

1. Jon Hays sees significant time under center for Utah.
2. John White does not break 1000 yards rushing.
3. Star Lotulelei lives up to his billing and dominates on the defensive line.
4. The coaching staff decides to not waste Travis Wilson's redshirt year.

The most discouraging thing about this blog is that BYU has only been mentioned once. Trust me, the rivalry game is still important. In the future, when fans are spending $300+ on season tickets and two of the six home games are against teams akin to Northern Colorado, the importance of the rivalry will come more to the forefront. As for this year, Utah over BYU, 30-21.

Dwight Howard to the Lakers: The Five Things You Need to Know

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It finally happened. Orlando got fleeced, the Lakers came out the huge winners, and the rest of the league can only stand back and watch.

Here are my 5 quick points of analysis. Really, it's all you need to know.

1. Freaking Lakers. They did it again. Pulled off an amazingly beneficial trade (that wasn't vetoed by Commissioner David Stern) and seem to be set for the next potential dynasty. Some teams just do it better. The Lakers have a lot of non-basketball related advantages (The beach, Hollywood, the weather) and they do not waste them by attracting non-Hall of Fame players. Really, this is just another in a long list of impactful big man pickups in Lakers' history. Wilt Chamberlain, Shaq, Pau Gasol, and now Dwight Howard. Essentially, I am not surprised that the Lakers got this deal done and that they got it done in a fashion that changes the complexion of the Western Conference. This is what the Lakers do.

2. Dwight Howard will not be vilified like LeBron was in his post-"The Decision" NBA tour. Part of it has to do with the fact that LeBron is the best player in the world by a large margin. Simply put, LeBron makes waves that Dwight, as great as he is, cannot. Also, Dwight is moving to the franchise that is the most widely despised in the NBA. Sure, a player like Kobe can carry the villain torch as well as anyone no matter which jersey he puts on, but by merely being on the Lakers, your villain torch is lit. They are a consistently successful, championship contending franchise. The Lakers at this point don't need the stars to be hated, they just happen to always have the stars. The vitriol direct toward Dwight will be two-fold: First, because of his gold-medal performance in wishie-washiness, Second, because he is a Laker. The Heat are/were hated because LeBron was leading the way, LeBron was/is hated because of "The Decision."

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3. How much better will the Lakers be? Compared to last year's squad: a lot better. Nevertheless, this great gathering of superstars is not unprecedented in Lakers history. In 2003, the Lakers added veterans Karl Malone and Gary Payton. Their starting lineup that year: Shaq, Malone, Rick Fox, Kobe, and Gary Payton. A brief, unscientific match-up analysis: Shaq v. Dwight - I'll call this a wash. Both in their prime, both the best center in the league, both are atrocious at free-throw shooting. Malone v. Gasol - Offensively, I would give the nod to present-day Gasol over 03-04, 40-year old Karl Malone. Defensively, 40-year old Malone has the edge. The old man still had it. Fox v. Artest - who cares? A wash. Though Fox wasn't the elbow-to-your-dome risk that Artest is. Young Kobe v. Old Kobe - clearly Young Kobe. While Old Kobe has the edge in maturity, Young Kobe was borderline unstoppable. Payton v. Nash - The toughest matchup to predict. Both are/were old. Both play different styles and have different strengths. I'll give the slight edge to Nash simply because I think he could have a greater affect on the team than Payton had. Defensively though, advantage Glove.

The 03-04 team, of course, lost to the Detroit Pistons in the NBA Finals. Injuries and bad chemistry did no favors to that iteration of Lakers superstars.

The point is, there is no reason to crown the 12-13 Lakers as Western Conference champions yet. Oklahoma City still has the best scorer in the NBA, and a host of other Western Conference teams are improving. An injury to one of the Big 4 on the Lakers roster complicates everything. Also, the team will need time to gel.

4. The current LA experiment can only last 2 years, i.e. when Kobe's current contract runs out. After that, it's Dwight's team. After those two years, Gasol will likely be gone, Nash will be retired, and the experiment will have run its course. This is not the start of a 5 year dynasty. This is a last ditch effort by Lakers to get a couple more championships out of Kobe. All other Western Conference teams just need to weather the storm, not make reactionary moves and keep things together. There is a lot of talent in the Western Conference capable of beating the Lakers in a 7-game series.

5. From a Utah Jazz perspective this does not really bump the ultimate plan out of its lane. No one within or without the Jazz organization expects them to contend for a Western Conference title in the next 2 years. With Derrick Favors, Gordon Hayward, and Alec Burks the Jazz possess talent, potential, and a lot of youth. It is a team built with an eye on the future. The aim of the next two years is positive growth that must include winning and playoff berths. There are no title runs on the horizon. After the Lakers experiment is over though, the Utah Jazz had better be ready to make their move. The best case scenario for the Jazz in the next two years is to make the playoffs and give one of the higher seeds an awesome, hard-fought, 6-7 game series. If the Jazz can do that, I like their chances of becoming a player in the Western Conference, after the Lakers experiment. This, of course, depends on the extent to which the young Utah Jazz core is able to develop as well as the ability of Jazz management to make wise additions and subtractions to the roster.

This trade is not a sign of the times for the NBA Armageddon. Chemistry and injuries are still a part of the game and necessary components in a championship team. Playing 82 games and then winning 16 in the playoffs are the requirement to win the NBA Finals for the foreseeable future (until the next lockout-shortened season). The Lakers deserve credit for handling their business and assembling their team via trades and not free agency a la the Miami Heat. Some teams are just better at it than others. Some markets have advantages that others do not. That's life. That's the NBA. I still love the NBA. I still do not like the Lakers.