Free Agents in the Crosshairs for the Utah Jazz – Summer 2012 - Volume 2

Now, I know I promised to review Goran Dragic, Ray Allen and at least one other player. I have not yet decided who that 3rd player will be and decided to just unload this info on the two aforementioned players. I hope the 44 people who viewed my last post can forgive me.

Goran Dragic

Goran Dragic would be the ultimate pick up for the Utah Jazz. The roots of my Dragic fandom is three-fold: first, I remember him coming off the bench and blasting the Jazz a few years back to the tune of 32 points (which included 6/7 shooting from 3pt land), second, his tutelage under Steve Nash (through 4 years, his win shares is similar to Nash at the same point in his career), third, and perhaps most importantly, the contributions he made to my fantasy basketball team in 2012. When it was all said and done, I had run through my fantasy league like the 95-96 Bulls. The domination was not without intrigue and drama though. My point guards Ricky Rubio and Stephen Curry went down with injury and Dragic filled in magnificently, carrying my team to the championship.

(The extent to which people do not care about Fantasy Basketball compared to Fantasy Basketball is astounding. I love the myriad of statistics involved in Basketball and how no player is limited to which stats they can garner like in football. But I digress.)

At 26 years old, Dragic’s best years are ahead of him. He has primarily played as a backup throughout his career, so the amount of minutes on his legs is minimal. Plus, when given the opportunity to play, the results have been positive. When Kyle Lowry, an important part of what the Houston Rockets 2012 season, went down this year, Dragic stepped in and owned the job. He did not play like a backup holding down the fort, he played like a starter who had been starting since day 1. When Lowry was healthy enough to play, Rockets coach Kevin McHale was forced to keep Dragic in for extended minutes. Dragic was playing that well. (Pay attention to those last 25 games. Only once did he not score in double digits and only once did he get less than 6 assists.)

If Dragic were a stock, I would be buying up a hefty number of shares Facebook-IPO-style (though with different returns, hopefully). He has made his position going into this offseason is clear: he wants an opportunity to start. As a free agent he will have the flexibility to move. My guess is that there is a team out there willing to supply that opportunity.

Now, is Dragic a good fit for the Jazz? Why not? One issue I see here what do you do with Devin Harris? I like Devin Harris and his play at the end of the year was encouraging and I think more indicative of the player he can be. I am comfortable with him being the point guard for the Utah Jazz for the next 3-5 years. If the Jazz obtain Dragic, there’s no way they can keep Harris on the roster. Dragic wants to start and there’s no reason why that job should not be Harris’.  The two cannot coexist. Therefore, the only option is to trade Harris.

The caveat here is that I do not think Harris’ trade value is very high at this point. Though I feel confidence in Harris, I am guessing that most GMs around the league are unsettled by his terrible start to the 2012 season regardless of his strong finish. The chances of the Jazz receiving an impact player in exchange for Harris are slim. I could be wrong though. Harris is a proven commodity in a lot of ways and that could be enticing for a team looking for stability at the PG position.

I think Goran Dragic has the potential to become one of the best PGs in this NBA. To put it in perspective (or to show my apparent lack of perspective), I would be more excited about a move to get Dragic than Steve Nash. If the Jazz can figure out a way to get him, they should do it. Unfortunately, the odds are Dragic will be in a Rockets uniform next season as long as Kevin McHale remains the coach. The presumptive starter, Kyle Lowry, has an issue with McHale's coaching and has made the "him or me" ultimatum. The most likely scenario seems to be the Rockets moving Lowry (I can see the Lakers getting into the picture here--especially if they are trying to move Gasol) and Dragic taking over full-time starting duties. Good for Dragic, and good for the Rockets, and bad for every one else.

Ray Allen

After looking at his career stats, I have decided that Ray Allen is bound for the hall of fame. True, basketball’s Hall is a little easier to get in to simply because there are only 12-15 players per NBA team and not a whole lot of transcendent players fill out those rosters. Ray Allen has been a transcendent player.

Should the Jazz decide to pursue Ray Allen, the most important consideration involved in signing him is what role is he willing to play. Allen was supplanted somewhat by Avery Bradley this year, which forced him to the bench and a sixth man role. While he was certainly not thrilled about being the first of the Big 3 to see their role diminished, everything points to him handling it well. Now, with Avery Bradley in the driver’s seat as far as being the permanent solution at the 2-guard spot, it is almost certain that Ray Allen will be open to the possibility of leaving Bean Town. If securing a starting spot is Allen’s goal, landing in Utah may not be the best option since the starting spot cannot be guaranteed. Or can it?

Wing players that will for sure be in a Jazz uniform next season: Gordon Hayward, Alec Burks, DeMarre Carroll.

Wing players that for sure will NOT be in a Jazz uniform 2012-2013: Raja Bell, C.J. Miles.

Wing players that suited up for the Jazz in 2012 and might do so again next season: Josh Howard (my guess is the Jazz will make the move to try and re sign Howard), Jeremy Evans (less likely unless the offers to go elsewhere aren’t too strong and the Jazz can get him on the cheap).

So, let’s assume that the Jazz hold on to Josh Howard and let Jeremy Evans fly the roost. The wing position would rotate between Hayward and Howard (starter quality players) and Burks and Carroll (solid bench players). In this situation, Allen may not be able to fit in. The competition for minutes would be fierce seeing that the Jazz are invested in developing Burks and Hayward, both of whom seem more natural fits for the two-guard position. One possible solution would be for Allen to start at the SG spot and Hayward at the SF. Burks would be the first off the bench to reprieve Allen and Howard would backup Hayward. Carroll would play when needed. The rotation would not necessarily need to be stringent, i.e. Hayward could still play the two alongside Howard/Carroll and Burks and Hayward could team up. It could work but it might get messy. 

There are 96 minutes per game at the SG and SF. Since Hayward will be a 36 minute a night player next season, that leaves 60 minutes to split between the remaining players. Even if Allen accepts a bench role, that would just take away time from Alec Burks. Although if Allen does accept a role off the bench, maybe who is playing where would be less important than the fact that the best guys are on the floor.

Now, if the Jazz do not re sign Josh Howard or Jeremy Evans, the game changes a little bit. Splitting 96 minutes between Hayward, Allen, Burks, Carroll, plus someone else is a lot easier. That being said, and I could be completely wrong, I get the impression that the aim is for Hayward to lock-down the SG position. Bringing in Allen would move Hayward into the starting SF position and Hayward would rarely see time at the SG. Also, those four players do not exactly inspire a ton of confidence. I really think the Jazz need to hold on to Howard.

Enough of that. The most important question is does Ray Allen make the Jazz a better team? Yes. The Jazz did not have any consistent 3-point shooting last year. Three-point shooting is Ray Allen’s specialty. Making a strong argument for Allen being the greatest 3-point shooter in NBA history is pretty easy. In career attempts and 3-point field goals, he is number 1 all-time. Throwing Allen into the mix immediately gives the Jazz a weapon they haven’t had since #14 Jeff Hornacek was holding down the SG position. This added threat would clear up things in the paint for Derrick Favors, Paul Millsap, Al Jefferson, and Enes Kanter to ply their trade. Allen brings veteran leadership as well as a bevy of playoff experience to a team whose most recent playoff experience is limited to running into the buzz-saw that is the 2012 San Antonio Spurs. This move could be akin to bringing in Derek Fisher back when the Deron Williams/Carlos Boozer era was just getting under way. That team got to a Western Conference Finals (albeit a trip that was gift-wrapped by #1 seed Dallas losing to #8 seed Golden State in the first round).

Now, I do have one worry with signing Allen. How engaged will he be? Does he have the patience to go from a perennial contender in Boston, to a team that is trying to find its way? Would Ray Allen have the same issues with Tyrone Corbin that Raja had? While Raja Bell is not even half the player that Ray Allen is, the aging shooting guard who clearly feels like he deserves to start angle and thinks he knows better than coach is unsettling. Ray Allen is highly thought of and does not have a history of ever trying to pull a Mark Jackson. I would not be too worried about an insurrection. Anyway, if Allen is trying to prove the doubters that have relegated him to the bench, being a crucial piece in taking a team to the next level would be solid evidence.

From the Jazz standpoint if they are looking to get to that next level, adding a player of Allen’s caliber could be the missing piece.

Postscript 

The draft lottery is on Wednesday, May 30th. The word from ESPN is that the Warriors and the Jazz are in talks to make some sort of trade guaranteeing that, no matter how the lottery plays out, the Warriors will hold on to their lottery pick (which the Jazz own if it is out of the top 7). If a deal is made, this could alter the 2012 offseason and any potential player acquisitions that the Jazz will make. Or, it could  be a situation in which the Jazz get some cash or future draft pick considerations. At any rate, Kevin O'Connor is smarter than you and I am sure that whatever deal he secures will be good news for the Jazz.