The 2012 off-season should be an interesting one for the Jazz franchise. The future is bright for Utah, but last season's inconsistencies made it clear that improvement must be made in order for this team to take the next step. I will cover some of the possible additions the Jazz could be making this off-season. I have not consulted a capologist as this is not a discussion of financial impact. The first three I will focus on: Andrei Kirilenko, Andre Miller, and Steve Nash.
Andrei Kirilenko –
Brad Rock from the Deseret News recently blogged about the possibility of Kirilenko coming back to Utah.
Though part of the Willaims/Boozer era that ultimately went out with a sputter by getting swept by the Lakers in 2010, Kirilenko’s legacy will always be his own--specifically his max-money contract and non-max-money production. His departure following the 2010-2011 season from the Utah Jazz franchise was without fanfare and thanks to the lockout was almost a non-story.
Though he flirted with the NBA when the lockout ended, he ultimately ended up playing in Russia. Now that the NBA season is over and it is clear that the Jazz are looking to make a quality addition, Kirilenko’s name has come up. According to Rock’s blog, AK-47 has Utah at the top of his list and his attitude seems to indicate that he in no way expects Utah to break the bank to bring him in. In short, he would give a hometown discount.
I think AK-47 holds a special place in Jazz fans’ hearts. Looking at the comments section in Rock’s column, the sentiment is that AK would still be a valuable addition to the current Jazz squad. He is an all-around good guy who genuinely enjoyed being and playing in Utah (a feeling not shared by a consensus of NBA players). That being said, the Kirilenko ship has sailed and his wife’s boutique Fluer de Lis is behind on its payments. I just do not see it happening.
Andre Miller
Could Andre Miller be the perfect fit for the Jazz?
For much of the last season, the Jazz point guard play was inconsistent. Eventually, it was Devin Harris’ resurgence beginning sometime in March that gave the Jazz the push they needed to get them into the playoffs. That being said, the Jazz cannot afford to wait until well into the season for consistent point guard play and Andre Miller has been nothing but consistent his whole career.
Having bounced around the league, Andre Miller’s career has been largely without fanfare or personal accolade. Through it all he has remained one of the best passers and one of the more crafty offensive point guards in the league. He has never been a superstar or even elected to an all-star team, but I also don’t think he has ever been a detriment anywhere he has gone. Without looking at the stats too in depth, my guess is that he has always managed to be an efficient player and has played above the league average in advanced metrics (here’s the statistical story). His Win Shares metric measures around 7 per season. His career total win share of 90.1 is comparable to Jason Terry, Mo Cheeks, Isaiah Thomas, and Joe Dumars. That is pretty good company.
Now, Andre is well into the twilight of his career. He likely only has two good years of high level play while getting consistent minutes. Obtaining Andre would never be seen as a long-term solution in Utah. His role would be as a bridge to the future, holding the spot until a younger point guard can step in to a greater role with the team.
The wisdom of this move depends on the Jazz’ ability to get a point guard of the future, something that would seem to be more difficult by the Jazz not having a 1st round draft pick. Since his career began, I have hoped that Andre would one day wear a Jazz uniform. His style of play and attitude seem to be a perfect fit with that of the Jazz organization.
Steve Nash
Steve Nash might be the most intriguing of all the possible free agent pickups the Jazz could make. Were he to play for the Jazz, it would mean that Utah was at one point the home of the two best point guards of the past 30 years. Even though their styles of play were not carbon copies of one another, I always felt that the torch of PG greatness was passed on from John Stockton to Steve Nash when the former retired.
With all that, I do not think that this particular move will happen.
Looking at it from Nash’s point of view: why would he want to join an up-and-comer like the Jazz even if the surrounding talent is so promising? While the evidence is there for the Jazz to make a jump in their win total and position in the echelon of the west, nothing is guaranteed. Until they prove something in the playoffs they will only be an up-and-comer, and that is something that has to be playing in Nash's decision making process.
At this point in his career Nash clearly has a lot of control where he winds up. Money or playing time are less important as he seeks his next contract. His sights are more likely aimed on one of the current contenders who won’t depend on him to ply his trade for more than 30 minutes a night. With Earl Watson and Jamaal Tinsley having proved their worth as NBA backups (I can easily foresee one or both of them being in a Jazz uniform next season), the Jazz would not need Nash to go beyond the 30-minute threshold very often. That being said, the Jazz would likely rely heavily on Nash for veteran leadership. While I am sure Nash is a more than capable leader, I would not be surprised if his preference would be a situation where he could focus on winning more than shepherding the young guys.
Quick side bar. To that last point, it seems more likely that the all-time greats never stop leading? I am probably too quick to assume that a player in Nash’s situation might want to take a break and assume a lesser role—take on emeritus locker-room leader status if you will. Taking a step back doesn’t seem to be in the DNA of the all-time great players. It would seem more logical that, even if the physical tools were failing him, a great player would still impose his attitude and work ethic on the team. Leadership comes naturally to some, and Nash seems like the kind of player that would change very little about the way he approaches the game and his teammates regardless of his situation.
Is Nash a good fit? Some things would need to change about the Jazz' offense since Nash has the ball in his hands so much. Nevertheless, of course he would be a good fit. He would fall into the Andre Miller tutor-the-young-guy situation in that Nash would man the point for 2-3 years, hopefully passing the reigns to a capable young up-and-comer. Nash is skilled enough and has a proven track record of helping his teammates thrive offensively that getting him would be a boon. (Nash's stats. Though his turnover rate is one of the highest in the league, he has more than made up for that.) At Utah, with a team full of young players, he would have a captive audience. A liability on defense, the emerging Derrick Favors would more than make up for this deficiency.
The wisdom of this move, like the play to get Andre Miller, depends on the Jazz' ability to secure a point guard for the future. Two to three years of Nash finding a slashing Hayward, Favors, Burks, et al is something I would look forward to. Nash is a hall of famer. If you can secure him without mortgaging your future (something I think the Jazz can do), you do it. However, I don’t think it will happen and securing Nash is not necessarily my personal preference.
That concludes this edition of players in the Jazz' cross-hairs for the summer of 2012. There are a few more free agents on the wish list, each of whom I will cover in similar fashion. Next up: Goran Dragic, Ray Allen, and at least one other.
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