Free Agents in the Crosshairs for the Utah Jazz – Summer 2012 - Volume 2

Now, I know I promised to review Goran Dragic, Ray Allen and at least one other player. I have not yet decided who that 3rd player will be and decided to just unload this info on the two aforementioned players. I hope the 44 people who viewed my last post can forgive me.

Goran Dragic

Goran Dragic would be the ultimate pick up for the Utah Jazz. The roots of my Dragic fandom is three-fold: first, I remember him coming off the bench and blasting the Jazz a few years back to the tune of 32 points (which included 6/7 shooting from 3pt land), second, his tutelage under Steve Nash (through 4 years, his win shares is similar to Nash at the same point in his career), third, and perhaps most importantly, the contributions he made to my fantasy basketball team in 2012. When it was all said and done, I had run through my fantasy league like the 95-96 Bulls. The domination was not without intrigue and drama though. My point guards Ricky Rubio and Stephen Curry went down with injury and Dragic filled in magnificently, carrying my team to the championship.

(The extent to which people do not care about Fantasy Basketball compared to Fantasy Basketball is astounding. I love the myriad of statistics involved in Basketball and how no player is limited to which stats they can garner like in football. But I digress.)

At 26 years old, Dragic’s best years are ahead of him. He has primarily played as a backup throughout his career, so the amount of minutes on his legs is minimal. Plus, when given the opportunity to play, the results have been positive. When Kyle Lowry, an important part of what the Houston Rockets 2012 season, went down this year, Dragic stepped in and owned the job. He did not play like a backup holding down the fort, he played like a starter who had been starting since day 1. When Lowry was healthy enough to play, Rockets coach Kevin McHale was forced to keep Dragic in for extended minutes. Dragic was playing that well. (Pay attention to those last 25 games. Only once did he not score in double digits and only once did he get less than 6 assists.)

If Dragic were a stock, I would be buying up a hefty number of shares Facebook-IPO-style (though with different returns, hopefully). He has made his position going into this offseason is clear: he wants an opportunity to start. As a free agent he will have the flexibility to move. My guess is that there is a team out there willing to supply that opportunity.

Now, is Dragic a good fit for the Jazz? Why not? One issue I see here what do you do with Devin Harris? I like Devin Harris and his play at the end of the year was encouraging and I think more indicative of the player he can be. I am comfortable with him being the point guard for the Utah Jazz for the next 3-5 years. If the Jazz obtain Dragic, there’s no way they can keep Harris on the roster. Dragic wants to start and there’s no reason why that job should not be Harris’.  The two cannot coexist. Therefore, the only option is to trade Harris.

The caveat here is that I do not think Harris’ trade value is very high at this point. Though I feel confidence in Harris, I am guessing that most GMs around the league are unsettled by his terrible start to the 2012 season regardless of his strong finish. The chances of the Jazz receiving an impact player in exchange for Harris are slim. I could be wrong though. Harris is a proven commodity in a lot of ways and that could be enticing for a team looking for stability at the PG position.

I think Goran Dragic has the potential to become one of the best PGs in this NBA. To put it in perspective (or to show my apparent lack of perspective), I would be more excited about a move to get Dragic than Steve Nash. If the Jazz can figure out a way to get him, they should do it. Unfortunately, the odds are Dragic will be in a Rockets uniform next season as long as Kevin McHale remains the coach. The presumptive starter, Kyle Lowry, has an issue with McHale's coaching and has made the "him or me" ultimatum. The most likely scenario seems to be the Rockets moving Lowry (I can see the Lakers getting into the picture here--especially if they are trying to move Gasol) and Dragic taking over full-time starting duties. Good for Dragic, and good for the Rockets, and bad for every one else.

Ray Allen

After looking at his career stats, I have decided that Ray Allen is bound for the hall of fame. True, basketball’s Hall is a little easier to get in to simply because there are only 12-15 players per NBA team and not a whole lot of transcendent players fill out those rosters. Ray Allen has been a transcendent player.

Should the Jazz decide to pursue Ray Allen, the most important consideration involved in signing him is what role is he willing to play. Allen was supplanted somewhat by Avery Bradley this year, which forced him to the bench and a sixth man role. While he was certainly not thrilled about being the first of the Big 3 to see their role diminished, everything points to him handling it well. Now, with Avery Bradley in the driver’s seat as far as being the permanent solution at the 2-guard spot, it is almost certain that Ray Allen will be open to the possibility of leaving Bean Town. If securing a starting spot is Allen’s goal, landing in Utah may not be the best option since the starting spot cannot be guaranteed. Or can it?

Wing players that will for sure be in a Jazz uniform next season: Gordon Hayward, Alec Burks, DeMarre Carroll.

Wing players that for sure will NOT be in a Jazz uniform 2012-2013: Raja Bell, C.J. Miles.

Wing players that suited up for the Jazz in 2012 and might do so again next season: Josh Howard (my guess is the Jazz will make the move to try and re sign Howard), Jeremy Evans (less likely unless the offers to go elsewhere aren’t too strong and the Jazz can get him on the cheap).

So, let’s assume that the Jazz hold on to Josh Howard and let Jeremy Evans fly the roost. The wing position would rotate between Hayward and Howard (starter quality players) and Burks and Carroll (solid bench players). In this situation, Allen may not be able to fit in. The competition for minutes would be fierce seeing that the Jazz are invested in developing Burks and Hayward, both of whom seem more natural fits for the two-guard position. One possible solution would be for Allen to start at the SG spot and Hayward at the SF. Burks would be the first off the bench to reprieve Allen and Howard would backup Hayward. Carroll would play when needed. The rotation would not necessarily need to be stringent, i.e. Hayward could still play the two alongside Howard/Carroll and Burks and Hayward could team up. It could work but it might get messy. 

There are 96 minutes per game at the SG and SF. Since Hayward will be a 36 minute a night player next season, that leaves 60 minutes to split between the remaining players. Even if Allen accepts a bench role, that would just take away time from Alec Burks. Although if Allen does accept a role off the bench, maybe who is playing where would be less important than the fact that the best guys are on the floor.

Now, if the Jazz do not re sign Josh Howard or Jeremy Evans, the game changes a little bit. Splitting 96 minutes between Hayward, Allen, Burks, Carroll, plus someone else is a lot easier. That being said, and I could be completely wrong, I get the impression that the aim is for Hayward to lock-down the SG position. Bringing in Allen would move Hayward into the starting SF position and Hayward would rarely see time at the SG. Also, those four players do not exactly inspire a ton of confidence. I really think the Jazz need to hold on to Howard.

Enough of that. The most important question is does Ray Allen make the Jazz a better team? Yes. The Jazz did not have any consistent 3-point shooting last year. Three-point shooting is Ray Allen’s specialty. Making a strong argument for Allen being the greatest 3-point shooter in NBA history is pretty easy. In career attempts and 3-point field goals, he is number 1 all-time. Throwing Allen into the mix immediately gives the Jazz a weapon they haven’t had since #14 Jeff Hornacek was holding down the SG position. This added threat would clear up things in the paint for Derrick Favors, Paul Millsap, Al Jefferson, and Enes Kanter to ply their trade. Allen brings veteran leadership as well as a bevy of playoff experience to a team whose most recent playoff experience is limited to running into the buzz-saw that is the 2012 San Antonio Spurs. This move could be akin to bringing in Derek Fisher back when the Deron Williams/Carlos Boozer era was just getting under way. That team got to a Western Conference Finals (albeit a trip that was gift-wrapped by #1 seed Dallas losing to #8 seed Golden State in the first round).

Now, I do have one worry with signing Allen. How engaged will he be? Does he have the patience to go from a perennial contender in Boston, to a team that is trying to find its way? Would Ray Allen have the same issues with Tyrone Corbin that Raja had? While Raja Bell is not even half the player that Ray Allen is, the aging shooting guard who clearly feels like he deserves to start angle and thinks he knows better than coach is unsettling. Ray Allen is highly thought of and does not have a history of ever trying to pull a Mark Jackson. I would not be too worried about an insurrection. Anyway, if Allen is trying to prove the doubters that have relegated him to the bench, being a crucial piece in taking a team to the next level would be solid evidence.

From the Jazz standpoint if they are looking to get to that next level, adding a player of Allen’s caliber could be the missing piece.

Postscript 

The draft lottery is on Wednesday, May 30th. The word from ESPN is that the Warriors and the Jazz are in talks to make some sort of trade guaranteeing that, no matter how the lottery plays out, the Warriors will hold on to their lottery pick (which the Jazz own if it is out of the top 7). If a deal is made, this could alter the 2012 offseason and any potential player acquisitions that the Jazz will make. Or, it could  be a situation in which the Jazz get some cash or future draft pick considerations. At any rate, Kevin O'Connor is smarter than you and I am sure that whatever deal he secures will be good news for the Jazz.

Free Agents in the Crosshairs for the Utah Jazz – Summer 2012

The 2012 off-season should be an interesting one for the Jazz franchise. The future is bright for Utah, but last season's inconsistencies made it clear that improvement must be made in order for this team to take the next step. I will cover some of the possible additions the Jazz could be making this off-season. I have not consulted a capologist as this is not a discussion of financial impact. The first three I will focus on: Andrei Kirilenko, Andre Miller, and Steve Nash.

Andrei Kirilenko –

Brad Rock from the Deseret News recently blogged about the possibility of Kirilenko coming back to Utah.

Though part of the Willaims/Boozer era that ultimately went out with a sputter by getting swept by the Lakers in 2010, Kirilenko’s legacy will always be his own--specifically his max-money contract and non-max-money production. His departure following the 2010-2011 season from the Utah Jazz franchise was without fanfare and thanks to the lockout was almost a non-story.

Though he flirted with the NBA when the lockout ended, he ultimately ended up playing in Russia. Now that the NBA season is over and it is clear that the Jazz are looking to make a quality addition, Kirilenko’s name has come up. According to Rock’s blog, AK-47 has Utah at the top of his list and his attitude seems to indicate that he in no way expects Utah to break the bank to bring him in. In short, he would give a hometown discount.

I think AK-47 holds a special place in Jazz fans’ hearts. Looking at the comments section in Rock’s column, the sentiment is that AK would still be a valuable addition to the current Jazz squad. He is an all-around good guy who genuinely enjoyed being and playing in Utah (a feeling not shared by a consensus of NBA players). That being said, the Kirilenko ship has sailed and his wife’s boutique Fluer de Lis is behind on its payments. I just do not see it happening.

Andre Miller

Could Andre Miller be the perfect fit for the Jazz?

For much of the last season, the Jazz point guard play was inconsistent. Eventually, it was Devin Harris’ resurgence beginning sometime in March that gave the Jazz the push they needed to get them into the playoffs. That being said, the Jazz cannot afford to wait until well into the season for consistent point guard play and Andre Miller has been nothing but consistent his whole career.

Having bounced around the league, Andre Miller’s career has been largely without fanfare or personal accolade. Through it all he has remained one of the best passers and one of the more crafty offensive point guards in the league. He has never been a superstar or even elected to an all-star team, but I also don’t think he has ever been a detriment anywhere he has gone. Without looking at the stats too in depth, my guess is that he has always managed to be an efficient player and has played above the league average in advanced metrics (here’s the statistical story). His Win Shares metric measures around 7 per season. His career total win share of 90.1 is comparable to Jason Terry, Mo Cheeks, Isaiah Thomas, and Joe Dumars. That is pretty good company.

Now, Andre is well into the twilight of his career. He likely only has two good years of high level play while getting consistent minutes. Obtaining Andre would never be seen as a long-term solution in Utah. His role would be as a bridge to the future, holding the spot until a younger point guard can step in to a greater role with the team.

The wisdom of this move depends on the Jazz’ ability to get a point guard of the future, something that would seem to be more difficult by the Jazz not having a 1^st round draft pick. Since his career began, I have hoped that Andre would one day wear a Jazz uniform. His style of play and attitude seem to be a perfect fit with that of the Jazz organization.

Steve Nash

Steve Nash might be the most intriguing of all the possible free agent pickups the Jazz could make. Were he to play for the Jazz, it would mean that Utah was at one point the home of the two best point guards of the past 30 years. Even though their styles of play were not carbon copies of one another, I always felt that the torch of PG greatness was passed on from John Stockton to Steve Nash when the former retired.

With all that, I do not think that this particular move will happen.

Looking at it from Nash’s point of view: why would he want to join an up-and-comer like the Jazz even if the surrounding talent is so promising? While the evidence is there for the Jazz to make a jump in their win total and position in the echelon of the west, nothing is guaranteed. Until they prove something in the playoffs they will only be an up-and-comer, and that is something that has to be playing in Nash's decision making process.

At this point in his career Nash clearly has a lot of control where he winds up. Money or playing time are less important as he seeks his next contract. His sights are more likely aimed on one of the current contenders who won’t depend on him to ply his trade for more than 30 minutes a night. With Earl Watson and Jamaal Tinsley having proved their worth as NBA backups (I can easily foresee one or both of them being in a Jazz uniform next season), the Jazz would not need Nash to go beyond the 30-minute threshold very often. That being said, the Jazz would likely rely heavily on Nash for veteran leadership. While I am sure Nash is a more than capable leader, I would not be surprised if his preference would be a situation where he could focus on winning more than shepherding the young guys.

Quick side bar. To that last point, it seems more likely that the all-time greats never stop leading? I am probably too quick to assume that a player in Nash’s situation might want to take a break and assume a lesser role—take on emeritus locker-room leader status if you will. Taking a step back doesn’t seem to be in the DNA of the all-time great players. It would seem more logical that, even if the physical tools were failing him, a great player would still impose his attitude and work ethic on the team. Leadership comes naturally to some, and Nash seems like the kind of player that would change very little about the way he approaches the game and his teammates regardless of his situation.

Is Nash a good fit? Some things would need to change about the Jazz' offense since Nash has the ball in his hands so much. Nevertheless, of course he would be a good fit. He would fall into the Andre Miller tutor-the-young-guy situation in that Nash would man the point for 2-3 years, hopefully passing the reigns to a capable young up-and-comer. Nash is skilled enough and has a proven track record of helping his teammates thrive offensively that getting him would be a boon. (Nash's stats. Though his turnover rate is one of the highest in the league, he has more than made up for that.) At Utah, with a team full of young players, he would have a captive audience. A liability on defense, the emerging Derrick Favors would more than make up for this deficiency.

The wisdom of this move, like the play to get Andre Miller, depends on the Jazz' ability to secure a point guard for the future. Two to three years of Nash finding a slashing Hayward, Favors, Burks, et al is something I would look forward to. Nash is a hall of famer. If you can secure him without mortgaging your future (something I think the Jazz can do), you do it. However, I don’t think it will happen and securing Nash is not necessarily my personal preference.

That concludes this edition of players in the Jazz' cross-hairs for the summer of 2012. There are a few more free agents on the wish list, each of whom I will cover in similar fashion. Next up: Goran Dragic, Ray Allen, and at least one other.